Bit late on this, working yesterday, but some quick observations...
Panesar - has to go. He's served his time, missed the 5th test (I'm sure we all agree he would have performed significantly better than Kerrigan, Briggs, Borthwick, AN Other Novice). If he doesn't deserve to be picked, does he never play again for England? I wouldn't wish a marriage break up on anyone -it clearly affected him as he was tee total before. Selectors have had assurances from Essex that he's ok - he has to go.
Great selection going for Carberry - experienced, top fielder, great batsmen in arguably better form than Compton and clearly a decent bloke to have around. Compton dug his own grave by criticising Gooch (according to Cricinfo) and going public with his thoughts about being dropped. He hasn't been treated fairly, but nor was Carberry in 2010 and he didn't complain...
I agree with Michael Vaughan that Bairstow shouldn't start, he has too many technical weaknesses at the moment. I'd start Ballance, with Stokes coming in if they go with 5 bowlers. Bairstow as reserve wk and comes in at 7 if Prior can't play.
Thought Woakes has a rough deal at The Oval, but I like the potential for England in years to come - Woakes and Stokes is a tabloid headliners dream and they could be very versatile players for England in the coming years.
My team for the first test would be;
Cook
Root
Trott
KP
Bell
Ballance
Prior
Broad
Swann
Anderson
Rankin (performed well in ODIs, is man in possession - you've picked him, so play him...)