I reckon myself although let's be honest most of us are having a right guess(and that's what the selectors are doing as well!)
2 and 3 above....yes possibly but I don't think so.If Butler finds form in the one dayers maybe he comes back in but right at this moment JB is the better bat and JButler the better keeper.I think JB will be better on quick tracks and could well get runs in SA.
It's not actually a new problem....look back at some point Prior's keeping was village but his batting was pretty consistent.He was eventually one of our best bats in the end IMO, such a valuable player for us and his keeping improved all the way-Bruch French seemed to help a huge amount.
Just my gut feeling long term is Butler has better hands and Bairstow is a tall lad for a keeper. Butler I think is more natural.
They will prob both go to South Africa and we could well be in the same position in six months time!
That's what being an England fan is all about!