Print

[Vic Nicholas]

until you have been a pom or a west Indian, you don't know what a black time is.

and 5 years? I think you are already more than competitive now. you might not be the best, but the aussies are significantly better than they were 12 months ago and are getting stronger.

Buzz, cricket is the barometer of the nation in Australia.

Maybe not to the same extent to India, but after the thumping we copped in the Ashes last summer, I could not help but notice the anger in your average Aussie everywhre I went.

Yes, we are starting the rebuild, but reality tells me that we have no hope of beating a full strength England in the back to back Ashes series of 2013 and 2013/14. We will have the bowlers to keep your batsmen honest, but we do not have an established top six to make the runs necessary to press home the advantage.

Given that Ponting and Hussey will be retired by then (one way or another), we will have an all new top six of which probably only Clarke and Watson will have played test cricket against England before.

Is Warner a flash in the pan, or a serious long term opener? Can Cowan cut it against the best? Will Shaun Marsh's fitness stand up? Will Khawaja translate promise and technical excellence into test runs? Will Nic Maddinson, Chris Lynn, Mitch Marsh and Kurt Patterson be ready by 2013?

Too many ifs and maybes, hence why I think it will take the best part of five years to see a truly good Australian team.

[Johnny]

If Khawaja is the Aussie standard for technical excellence, then you may be in trouble for longer than 5 years!?

I agree with Buzz, that Oz aren't in that bad shape.

You might NEVER be as good again as the team that dominated the last 15 or so years though.

[tim2000s]

Again you miss the point.

Anderson out performed the Australian bowlers in ONE series.

Where was he in 2006/07 and 2009?

In fact, in the 2009 Ashes, Hilfenhaus, Siddle AND Johnson ALL out performed Anderson.

Comfortably too.

He had one very good series against the worst and most demoralised Australian team in living memory. Throw in some cheap wickets against Bangladesh and you suddenly have the new superstar Anderson. Extremely overrated.

I don't think that Johnson circa 2011/12 is better than anybody....but Johnson 2008/09 was as good as anyone in the world. He is finished now, so no point discussing him other than as a reference point as to how good Anderson and Broad actually are.

Right then, lets put some numbers up. Here are the records for all to see between Anderson and Johnson, over the period 2007-2011. I have ignored Anderson's record prior to this, because most of us wondered what the hell the selectors were doing picking him up until around that point (as his stats show). Now realistically, I wouldn't say that Anderson and Johnson had the same role in the bowling attack until 2009, when both were leading the attack. I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions from the data, but over the period, they both have remarkably similar averages, overs bowled, wickets taken and runs given, economy and strike rates.

The point being that averages really don't tell you a great deal without seeing much more data.

[Vic Nicholas]

Enlightening stuff Tim.

If we can eliminate Andersons first couple of years, can we eliminate Johnsons last year or so?

Yes, remarkably similar, but Anderson has found his mark after years of shytness whereas Johnson has fallen right away and is arguably finished. Their progress arrows are pointing in opposite directions.

[Vic Nicholas]

If Khawaja is the Aussie standard for technical excellence, then you may be in trouble for longer than 5 years!?

I agree with Buzz, that Oz aren't in that bad shape.

You might NEVER be as good again as the team that dominated the last 15 or so years though.

There has only been three, maybe four great Australian teams in history (Armstrongs 1921 team, Bradmans Invincibles, Chappells 1974-1976 and Oz 1993-2007), so I am not likely to see another team of that quality again in my life time.

I think Khawaja's technique is quite good.

I think Nic Maddinsons technique is faultless.

Of the English, I like Bell's technique best from a purists perspective.

But judging by your remarks, what would I know?

[mdl_1979]

In the last 3 years (32 matches, or just over half of Anderson's career) Anderson averages 26.77 with the ball. His figures have been flattered by an enormous 2 matches against Bangladesh, in which he took an earth-shattering 9 wickets at 24.77

Anderson is not going through some kind of patch of good form.  He is just a better, more mature, more rounded bowler than he was when he was first picked, and is in the top 2 or 3 current fast bowlers (with Steyn, and arguably, Khan)

[roco]

Just watching Cowan on the highlights and he looks a very stiff hard hands player as if he has spent a lot of time on the bowling machine or is it just me looks good though

[tim2000s]

If we can eliminate Andersons first couple of years, can we eliminate Johnsons last year or so?

Yes, remarkably similar, but Anderson has found his mark after years of shytness whereas Johnson has fallen right away and is arguably finished. Their progress arrows are pointing in opposite directions.

I'd also mention that out of all of Andersons appearances, he only really started to play regularly from 2008. In the first five years of his England career he played 20 matches. In the next three he played 43. The Ashes victory of 2005 didn't feature him once, indeed, his first full Ashes series was the tour of 2006-2007, and we all know about that one. Until he had finally got a level of consistency, he really was only a bit part player, whereas the selectors appear not to have had that approach too frequently with Mitch, regardless of his performance!

Interestingly, it would appear that MJs best season was his first for Australia (all be it only for three matches), where his average was quite a lot lower than his second best, in 2009, and it all went rapidly downhill in 2010, and yet the selectors still kept picking him. Sounds more like a selection problem than anything else - send him back to the shield to get his confidence!

[uknsaunders]

andersons first ashes tour was 2002/3 as a replacement

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/65630.html

[tim2000s]

andersons first ashes tour was 2002/3 as a replacement

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/65630.html

However, he didn't play in any Ashes matches until 2006-2007.

[uknsaunders]

sorry mis-read, missed the word "full" before ashes tour lol!

[Number4]

In the last 3 years (32 matches, or just over half of Anderson's career) Anderson averages 26.77 with the ball. His figures have been flattered by an enormous 2 matches against Bangladesh, in which he took an earth-shattering 9 wickets at 24.77

Anderson is not going through some kind of patch of good form.  He is just a better, more mature, more rounded bowler than he was when he was first picked, and is in the top 2 or 3 current fast bowlers (with Steyn, and arguably, Khan)

Lets not be too harsh on Bangladesh seeing as they have the best allrounder in the world in Shakib Al Hasan

[kaustav]

Lets not be too harsh on Bangladesh seeing as they have the best allrounder in the world in Shakib Al Hasan

Lol 

[Vic Nicholas]

You seem to be assuming that Australia are the only team that will do any improving over the next 5 years.

Interesting question.

India are about a year away from oblivion as SRT, Dravid and Laxman all retire at roughly the same time.

South Africa are past their peak and will need to start rebuilding soon. Their fast bowling stocks are marvelous. Need a new keeper and few new batsmen. Will not be down for too long.

So that is numbers 2 and 3 in teh world who are on the slide.

England are in very good shape now as they are in their "window" of opportunity. At the moment, probably only need a reliable #6 who can bowl some overs as a bonus. (We will get back to England later)

Australia are in the process of a complete rebuild with players like Ponting, Hussey, Haddin and Harris unlikely to be around for the 2013 Ashes.

Names like Pattinson, Cummins, Hazelwood, Faulkner, Wade, Maddinson, Lynn will be part of the mix of a new look Australian team by that time.

Now the interesting part. In five years time, what improvement will this excellent team have in them?

Strauss 35 yo - will not be around in 5 years time.
Cook  27 yo - will be 32 and still a very good batsman I imagine.
Trott 31 yo - will be 36 and either finished or about to finish in five years time.
Pietersen 31 yo - will be 36 and as above.
Bell 29 yo - will be 34 and entering the last years of his career.
Morgan 25 yo - will be 29, but hasn't established himself yet, so time will tell. Still young enough.
Prior 29 yo - will be 34. Could still be playing, but may be usurped by Jonny Bairstow by that time.
Bresnan 26 yo - will be 31 and still around (if form holds up)
Swann 32 yo - will be 37 and probably finished.
Broad 25 yo - will be 30 and very much around.
Onions 29 - will be 34 and finished.
Anderson 29 - as above
Tremlett 30 - as above
Finn 23 - will be 27-28 and at his peak.

England will need a new opening batsman to partner Cook.

May also need another batsmen or three by then. James Taylor? Hildreth? Or maybe a couple guys from the SA u19's team?

Anderson, Tremlett and Onions will be gone, but Finn and Broad will be at their peak. Who will join them? The Saffer Meaker?

Will Bresnan still be around, or will the Kiwi Benny Stokes replace him by then?

Prior may still be around, but if not, Jonny Bairstow would be logical..or Jos Buttler?

Swanny would be gone I imagine, so who is there to replace him? Scotty Bporthwiock the leggy?

A lot can change in five years as the above illustrates.

[Johnny]

Not sure who will open when Strauss retires, but otherwise, I think this team would be pretty decent:

Cook (c)
A N Other
Bell
Taylor
Morgan
Stokes
Barstow
Bresnan
Broad
Finn
Briggs/Kerrigan