Its interesting that there are all of a sudden so many people with a genuine claim to a spot int he England side yet so little clarity about who should be selected. To whit, there is a spot opening and one at six that are totally up in the air, as well as the bowling slots - and its interesting that depsite 95 and 54 in the last South Africa test almost noone thinks that Bairstow should be given the nod.
What would I do? Well, I would be inclined to go left field. Bell is not going to play the second test and is weak against spin so why pick him for the first when a line up of:
Cook
Root/Compton
Trott
Pietersen
Morgan
Patel
Prior
Broad
Swann
Finn (if fit - if not Bresnan)
Panesar
might do the job better. I appreciate that leaving Anderson out is not going to happen in the real world, but I do not feel that five overs with the ball swinging a bit will off set his lack of overs/threat for the remainder of the innings. Plus he can be rested for tests that do need his brand of skills.