Assuming everyone is fit, this is the side I would like to see going into the first test:
Cowan
Watson
Rogers
Hughes
Clarke
Warner
Haddin
Pattinson
Harris
Lyon
Bird
Watson has always looked best as an opener for me, but having him there or at first drop with Rogers opening, seems the best option. Cowan provides some stability and metal remaining at opener. Rogers is in the squad to play; he won't have been picked just as a backup. Great record in county cricket, experienced and knows the conditions. At three or opening he provides a bit of steel. That allows Hughes, Clarke and Warner to bat where they should be (4, 5 and 6).
In English conditions, Pattinson, Harris and Bird should be the quicks for me. I love Siddle, but when Harris is fit he's a massive asset and a quality bowler. 98 wickets in two seasons playing for Tasmania in similar conditions suggests Jackson Bird should thrive. And Pattison is a must. If Harris breaks down or Bird doesn't work, bring in Siddle or Starc.
I'm not brave enough to say whether I think that team could claim a series win, but it should be able to give it a good shake. That said, England are still the better team by a long way, and I think I'll be fairly pleased if we manage to win a test or two and still lose the series. It'll be progress.