Mate your realistic lineup is far from realistic!
Considering how our team has performed it is. Too many poor performances, and the bowling attack hasn't been up to scratch.
Patel is the guy I would have brought in before Ali, I'd even have considered Bopara before Ali. Might be harsh to drop him, but I favour Patel and Bopara.
Buttler for Prior is a given, unless the selectors actually want the best gloveman in the country behind the sticks.
Briggs gives us a spinner, he can also bat to add some needed depth.
Finn is the bowler I would have chosen as the third seamer. Plunkett has done ok, but long term I see Finn as the better option.
I think four changes is realistic, though perhaps the more likely ones would be for Robson, Prior, Stokes and either Broad or Anderson to let them rest.