I'm not sure Hales will be tight enough with his technique to be a successful opener, but it's only fair that they give him a shot, even if they bring Lyth back in to the squad (as back-up). You never know, look at Warner, he was a climber when he started.
Cook
Bell
Root
Taylor
Bairstow/Buttler. Bairstow has the gloves and the form but I think there is little between them.
Ali
Stokes
Broad
Plunkett (or Wood if fit)
Anderson
I'd like them to get Ballance back in the squad, he was unlucky to be dropped when there were so many similarly underperforming players, it could had been any of them.
I would think this is Bell's last tour, maybe be available next summer before he retires (unless he gets his form back).
Whilst I like Rashid, unless he can take that step up he'll struggle to keep his place. It took Shane Warne a while to settle into international cricket (about 5 tests before the Gatting ball). I'm not saying Rashid is anywhere that quality, but it does show that you can't be certain off the first few tests.
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