I think the point about the quality of county attacks is a good one - once the England bowlers are hived off, you really only have one really top class attack in division one - and that is why Yorkshire are such overwhelming favourites for another championship pennant. Elsewhere, you have the solid through to the downright mediocre, especially once division two pitches are taken into account.
For that reason, I suspect that nine of the likely eleven can be reeled off pretty quickly - Cook, Root, Compton and Hales will be amongst the batsmen, Bairstow, Stokes and Ali will be the all rounders, and Anderson and Broad will be two of the three quicks. It is only the previous success of Liam Plunkett's pace and aggression against Sri Lanka that prevents me saying that Steve Finn is the tenth nailed on certainty. Leaves us looking for a replacement for JT, and in realistic terms thats a shoot out between three guys who have played previously - Bell, Ballance and Lyth - in rough order of probability.
Where I have a bit of an issue with that "continuity of thinking" is that it becomes a little...inflexble over time. Unless something remarkable happens, whomsoever plays wll be gifted three tests on Chief Executives pitches against one of the weaker attacks in recent test history. In English thinking, that probably means that the team who start the first test is likely to be our side for the next 18 months...I would rather see some consideration of the underlying issues at this stage:
1. Is Jonny Bairstow going to make it as a keeper? If not, give him the number five berth back now and let him forge a test career as a batsman. Its only the lack of a replacement that might keep him there.
2. Is Alex Hales an opener at test level? We have the luxury of thinking about this one - in the likely side, Nick Compton could step up, and there are plenty of candidates in form in the county game. He wouldn't even have to be dropped - he could move to three or even five.
3. Where do we go post Jimmy Anderson?
My side? Would be even braver...
A Cook
A Lyth
N Compton
J Root
J Bairstow (keeper)
B Stokes
A Hales
A Rashid
S Broad
S Finn
J Anderson