The way i see it is that there is 1 spot to choose and it all depends how they want to make up the side.
The 10 bankers for the 1st test - Cook, Hameed, Jennings, Root, Stokes, Bairstow, Mo, Woakes, Broad & Anderson
So do they want to -
A. Play an extra batsman - a la Ballance/Livingstone etc... then they bat at either 5 or 7 depending on where Bairstow bats.
or
B. Play an extra bowler - a la Wood/Ball etc... or even a spinner (i think unlikely), then Bairstow definitely bats at 5 and the extra bowler slots in between 9-11