Surrey are a decent bet, you're right - like Middlesx, they will be weel looked after by the ECB suits, and will lose few players to international duty this year.
Its a pretty open one actually - certain counties heavy reliance on Kolpak imports means that there are no obvious relegation candidates this year. As a punt, one through eight, I'm thinking:
1. Middlesex. Good batting line up, reasonable bowling with Finn and Roland-Jones set to just miss out on England selection.
2. Surrey. See above.
3. Hampshire. Could be the surprise package with Abbott, Roussow, Bailey, Edwards, Wheal, Berg and Ervine unlikely to be called up by England.
4. Yorkshire. That bowling attack will win them some games, but the fact is, the ECB are very keen that the title doesn't live at Headingley and they will prevent Bairstow, Root and likely Rashid, Plunkett and Willey playing to enable that to happen.
5. Warwickshire. Strong batting, moderate bowling.
6. Somerset. Leach looks a busted flush, and everyone will take two spinners to Taunton this season.
7. Lancashire. They haven't really strengthened enough even with the Kolpakkers. They were poor the second half of last year and look light on talent this.
8. Essex - harsh as it may seem, once they lose Cook back to England (he doesn't need a rest, seemingly) they will just lack for a bit of top flight nous, and their dibbly dobblies won't be as successful against top division talent.