Under these conditions and with Stokes out, there may not be much diff in the batting between the two sides. Kohli at his best during last Eng tour still couldn't force a result in Ind favor, and current Kohli, Rahane and Pujara are all way below their peak. Not sure Vihari deserves his place at 6 either, he can block few balls and bat time but can hardly score. Test avg of 32 after 21 innings, this may be his last chance if he doesn't score.
Difference between the two sides is really the bowling. Eng have bowlers suited for the conditions, a little let off guard and Anderson and Broad will run amok. Don't think Ind have the bowlers to exploit the swinging conditions. Not to mention bizarre selections of Kohli/Sastry like they did in WTC picking two spinners on green top, cloud conditions and rain washed out first day.
Another huge yet underrated advantage Eng have is a clearly better lower order batting. Last time Ind toured Eng, I felt Sam Curran did more to influence the final result than anyone else with the amount of runs he scored in the lower order. With his aggressive batting, he is just the right guy at the slot to take on the tired bowlers at that stage.
Eng 5-0 or 4-1 is my guess assuming no rain wash outs.